AGP Executive Report

Energy & Water Crisis: President Kais Saied says Tunisia’s water and electricity cuts were driven by “premeditated acts,” not technical failures, after STEG and SONEDE reported recurring disruptions amid near-50°C heat. Public Services & Protests: A Tunisian rights group says protests over outages have spread nationwide, with hundreds of marches across interior governorates. Transport & Tourism Investment: SIXT enters Tunisia via a Tunifleet franchise, launching at Tunis-Carthage, Monastir and Enfidha, with Djerba planned for 2027 and services beyond rentals. Food Security & Trade: Tunisia’s state grains agency tenders about 200,000 tons of wheat and feed barley to secure supplies for the coming season. Consumer & Industry Moves: Varun Beverages plans a Tunisia joint venture (75% stake) to produce and distribute drinks and dairy, pending approvals. Gold Market Watch: Sfax jewelry artisans flag a slower local gold rise than global prices, seen as a potential investment opening. Global Legal/Policy: A US court struck down an immigrant visa ban affecting 75 countries, including several North African states.

Power & Water Crisis: President Kais Saied says Tunisia’s prolonged water and electricity cuts were driven by “premeditated acts,” not technical failures, after meetings involving STEG and SONEDE as summer heat pushes demand to near-50°C levels. Transport Disruption: Tunisian National Railways cancels several Tunis-linked trips due to a locomotive shortage, apologising to customers while service resumes. Business Expansion: SIXT enters Tunisia via a Tunifleet partnership, launching at Tunis-Carthage, Monastir and Enfidha airports, with a Djerba branch planned for 2027 and services spanning rentals, leasing and chauffeur options. Industry & Mining Cooperation: Tunisia’s Industry and Minerals minister meets KPMG Tunisia to develop industrial strategies, investment mapping, industrial zones and mineral value chains. Finance & Markets: Gold prices in Tunisia lag global gains, but local traders see a potential opportunity as prices are expected to keep rising into year-end. Migration Tragedy: Funerals in Ben Guerdane follow a migrant boat sinking that left eight dead, with anger over long-running local marginalisation. Labour & Policy Context: A new minimum-wage comparison ranks Switzerland highest globally, underscoring how purchasing power varies beyond headline wage figures.

Energy & Water Governance: President Kaïs Saïed said investigations found Tunisia’s recent water and electricity cuts in several regions were “deliberate acts,” not ordinary technical failures, after a Carthage Palace meeting with STEG and SONEDE officials. Heatwave & Power Stability: Kairouan hit 49.8°C, ranking among the world’s hottest cities, as outages were reported across the country and STEG said they were carried out to protect grid stability. Public Services Disruption: Tunisian National Railways cancelled multiple Tunis-bound trips due to a locomotive shortage, apologising to customers. Cash & Payments: Central Bank data showed banknotes and coins in circulation surpassed 30 billion dinars, highlighting continued liquidity pressure and the dominance of cash in daily transactions. Trade & Industry: Tunisia’s trade deficit analysis flagged industrial metals—especially copper—as a major, often overlooked driver, with copper price increases widening the gap. Migration Tragedy: Ben Guerdane held funerals for eight migrants after a Mediterranean boat sinking; only one survivor was found. Tourism Access: TUI will launch direct charter flights from London Gatwick to Djerba next summer, aiming to boost visitor numbers with two weekly routes. Sports Finance: Former Hearts of Oak CEO Harry Zakour denied claims players weren’t properly paid after the 2000 CAF Champions League, saying each of the 18 squad members received $100,000.

Cash & Liquidity Watch: Tunisia’s cash in circulation hit a record 30 billion dinars, up sharply year-on-year, underlining how summer spending and the still-heavy reliance on cash keep pressure on liquidity and the push toward cashless payments. Foreign Trade Focus: Tunisia’s trade deficit is being widened not only by energy, grain and cars but also by industrial metals—copper and steel together posted a deficit of 2.637 billion dinars in the first seven months of 2026, with copper’s rise driven more by prices than volumes. Banking & FX Flows (Regional): Libya’s central bank data show banks’ foreign-currency usage from January to end-July 2026 at US$15.987 billion, with Tunisia among the top supplier countries supporting Libyan private-sector imports. Energy & Services: STEG warned it may resort to rotating power cuts in multiple regions, including Greater Tunis and parts of the south, to protect grid safety. Migration & Human Cost: Ben Guerdane mourned eight young migrants drowned after a Mediterranean crossing attempt; protests again linked the tragedy to long-standing local marginalisation. Agriculture Inputs: Fertiliser squeeze reports surfaced elsewhere (distribution problems and inflated prices), with authorities pointing to stocks and new coordination measures. Tourism & Connectivity: TUI plans direct charter flights from London Gatwick to Djerba next summer, boosting access and package options for visitors. Business & Investment (Tunisia-linked): Varun Beverages is setting up a Tunisia joint venture to manufacture and distribute drinks (carbonated soft drinks, juices, water and dairy), alongside its India RTD/alcohol push. Sports Finance (Not Tunisia, but business angle): Former Hearts of Oak CEO Harry Zakour said the club paid each of 18 players $100,000 from a $3 million Champions League reward, responding to claims of underpayment.

Power & Water Disruption: STEG warned of possible rotating power cuts across Greater Tunis, the South-West and the South (10:00 p.m.–midnight, up to two hours, intermittently), as Tunisia continues to battle grid stress. Aviation & Tourism: Around 150 easyJet passengers were stranded at Enfidha airport for nearly three days after a Belfast flight was cancelled due to a technical issue, with limited alternative options and accommodation. Migration & Social Pressure: Protests in Ben Guerdane flared after a migrant boat sank off Tunisia’s southeast coast; volunteers resumed searches for two missing people as authorities reported bodies recovered and one survivor. Gold Market: Tunisia’s jewellery traders expect gold to climb further, with retail 18-carat jewellery prices potentially reaching 470–500 dinars per gram by year-end. Corporate Moves (Tunisia-linked): Varun Beverages approved a Tunisia joint venture to manufacture and distribute carbonated soft drinks, juices, water and dairy, while also setting up an alcobev subsidiary in India led by ex-Diageo executive Prathmesh Mishra. Energy & Agriculture: Reports of fertiliser squeeze in the Aman season point to distribution failures rather than overall stock shortages, prompting a new cabinet committee to tighten collection and dealer oversight. Industry Investment: Leoni Tunisia confirmed continued expansion projects, highlighting its long-running automotive components footprint and job creation across Bizerte, Sousse and Monastir.

Cash & Payments: Tunisia’s cash economy keeps swelling: banknotes and coins in circulation hit a new record of 30+ billion dinars in August, after rising from 22.6bn end-2024 and 26.9bn end-2025, raising fresh liquidity questions for banks as more money moves outside deposits. Energy Crunch: STEG warned of rolling power cuts tonight (10pm-midnight) across multiple governorates, with supply possibly restored without notice. Migration & Social Pressure: Volunteers continued searching for two missing after a migrant boat sank off Tunisia’s southeast; 12 bodies were recovered and protests erupted in Ben Guerdane, with residents linking departures to unemployment and marginalisation. Tourism Receipts: Tourism revenues reached 5.13bn dinars as of Aug 20, supporting foreign-currency purchases by the central bank; Tunisia welcomed 5.93m tourists through July 31. Gold Watch: Tunisia’s gold market may see retail prices climb toward 470–500 dinars per gram by year-end as global prices rise. Corporate/Industry: Leoni Tunisia confirmed continued expansion projects and jobs across Bizerte, Sousse and Monastir.

Cash & Payments: Tunisia’s cash economy keeps breaking records as tougher cheque rules push more spending into banknotes and coins; the Central Bank says banknotes and coins in circulation hit about 30.04bn dinars (Aug 21), up 16% year-on-year, with cash withdrawals still dominating electronic payments. Energy & Water: STEG warned of rolling power cuts (10pm-midnight) in multiple regions, while SONEDE reported drinking-water disruptions in parts of Mahdia and Sfax due to a power outage at the Kerker pumping station. Migration & Social Tension: Search operations continue after a migrant boat sank off Tunisia’s southeast; authorities and rights groups report 12 bodies recovered and two still missing, with Ben Guerdane protests turning violent over jobs and living conditions. Tourism & FX: Tourism receipts rose to 5,127.5m dinars by Aug 20, supporting foreign-currency inflows alongside transfers from Tunisians abroad.

Migrant Tragedy in Ben Guerdane: Tunisia’s southern hospital in Ben Guerdane received at least 19 bodies after a weekend migrant boat sank, as protests erupted and police used tear gas; genetic testing is under way to identify victims and confirm how many were aboard. Water Disruption in Sfax & Mahdia: SONEDE said a power outage at the Kerker pumping station triggered drinking-water cuts from 10:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m., affecting multiple delegations in both governorates. Cash in Circulation Hits New High: Tunisia’s banknotes and coins in circulation rose to 30.040 billion dinars as of Aug. 21, up sharply year-on-year, with seasonal spending cited. Tunindex Slightly Down: The Tunis Stock Exchange week ended with the Tunindex down 0.1% to 19,679.02 points, with AMEN BANK the most traded. Olive Oil Exports Up: Olive oil exports reached 368,000 tons in the first nine months of the 2025/26 campaign, up 55.3%, bringing revenues to TND 4.605 billion. Microfinance vs Banks Pricing Clash: A report highlights Tunisia’s contradictory framework—microfinance loans above 30% versus bank lending to the same clientele at zero interest—raising questions on the country’s credit policy. Transport Pass Sales Start: Transtu began selling 2026-2027 school and university transport passes via 151 post offices and several agencies, with TGM correction points set up. Trade & Investment Signals: Tunisia targets boosting trade with India toward $1 billion over five years, while a separate analysis flags a widening trade deficit driven by energy, mobility and healthcare dependencies.

Tunisia Trade & Agriculture: Tunisia’s olive oil exports jumped 55.3% to 368,000 tonnes in the first nine months of the 2025/26 season, bringing revenues to about $1.6bn, with extra-virgin oil dominating and the EU still the main buyer. Tunisia External Accounts: The trade deficit widened to TND 14.958bn in the first seven months of 2026, up more than 25% year-on-year, driven by growing import bills tied to energy, mobility and healthcare needs. Tunisia Markets: The Tunis Stock Exchange ended the week slightly down as Tunindex slipped 0.1% to 19,679.02 points, with AMEN BANK the most traded stock. Tunisia Health & Cooperation: A China-aided cancer treatment centre was launched in Gabes, aiming to expand access to radiotherapy and related services. Tunisia Migration & Security: Two separate Mediterranean migrant tragedies were reported off Tunisia’s coast, with deaths and missing people prompting protests in affected border areas. Regional Trade: Türkiye said exports to OIC countries hit $41.5bn in seven months, while shipments to Africa rose 12.6% to $13.3bn, including Tunisia. Finance & ESG: Burgan Bank (Kuwait) received an MSCI ESG rating upgrade to BBB. Policy & Governance: A parliamentary proposal would amend Tunisia’s civil service law to allow reassignments based on academic qualifications. Digital Economy: A fintech deep-dive highlights Tunisia’s push to grow cash-light services despite rising cash use outside banks.

Mediterranean Tragedy: Tunisia’s National Guard recovered 11 bodies after a migrant boat sank off the southeast coast near Zarzis; one survivor was saved and three others remain missing, sparking protests in Ben Guerdane over local conditions and the EU-backed border-control push. Tunisia Markets: The Tunis Stock Exchange week ended slightly down as Tunindex slipped 0.1% to 19,679.02, with AMEN BANK the most traded stock after block deals. Olive Oil Export Boom: Olive oil exports rose 55.3% to 368,000 tons in the first nine months of 2025/26, bringing about $1.6bn; extra-virgin made up 83.6% of volumes, with the EU taking 57.1%. Trade Deficit Pressure: Tunisia’s trade deficit widened to TND 14.958bn in the first seven months as energy, mobility and healthcare-related imports outpaced export growth. Policy & Jobs: The Official Gazette published 17 health-sector appointments, including hospital and basic healthcare group directors across several governorates. Business Ties: CONECT says Tunisia wants to lift trade with India from about $521m to $1bn over five years, highlighting agriculture, pharma and digital engineering. Public Services Protest: Hundreds marched in Tunis calling for President Kais Saied to step down amid water and electricity cuts and rising living costs. Regional Finance: Burgan Bank (Kuwait) received an MSCI ESG rating upgrade to BBB, signaling stronger sustainability positioning.

Tunisia Olive Oil Boom: Tunisia’s olive oil exports jumped 55.3% to a record 368,000 tonnes in the first nine months of the 2025/26 season, bringing in $1.6bn and boosting foreign-currency earnings; extra-virgin made up 83.6% and the EU took 57.1% of shipments. Protests & Utilities Strain: Hundreds of Tunisians rallied in downtown Tunis calling for President Kais Saied to step down as heat-driven water and electricity cuts worsen daily life and living costs. Migration Tragedy at Sea: A migrant boat capsized off southern Tunisia; at least 2 died and 12 were missing, with one survivor rescued, as departures from Zarzis remain a key route toward Italy. EU Outsourcing Migration Controls: A report says Europe has cooperated with Libya’s eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar to curb migrant flows, raising fresh rights-abuse concerns. Banking Sustainability Upgrade: Burgan Bank announced an MSCI ESG rating upgrade from BB to BBB, citing progress in governance, sustainability disclosures and risk management. Regional Trade Watch: Turkiye’s exports to Africa rose 12.6% to $13.3bn in the first seven months; Tunisia was among key markets, with shipments above $720m year-to-date. Policy & Jobs: A parliamentary proposal would amend Tunisia’s civil service law to allow reassignments based on academic qualifications.

Tunisia Protests & Utilities Crisis: Hundreds of Tunisians marched in downtown Tunis calling for President Kais Saied to step down, blaming weeks of water and electricity cuts, medicine shortages, rising prices and tighter political freedoms; the demonstrations were organised by the new Nafas movement. Olive Oil Export Boost: Tunisia’s olive oil exports jumped 55.3% to a record 368,000 tons in the first nine months of the 2025/26 season, bringing $1.6bn in revenue, with the EU taking 57.1% of shipments. Fintech Under Pressure: A look at Tunisia’s fintech ecosystem highlights the paradox of more advanced digital services alongside growing reliance on physical cash, with cash outside banks hitting a record TND 27.5bn. Migration Tragedies & Mediterranean Risks: Reports include a migrant boat sinking off Tunisia with at least 13 missing and separate accounts of bodies spotted at sea, underscoring the continuing danger of crossings. Banking ESG Upgrade: Burgan Bank said MSCI upgraded its ESG rating from BB to BBB, citing stronger sustainability and governance practices. Trade & Regional Links: Turkey’s exports to Africa rose 12.6% in the first seven months to $13.3bn, with Tunisia among key markets.

Mediterranean Migration: Civil search flights by Sea-Watch spotted empty boats off Libya, with the likely role of Libyan coastguard militias in intercepting migrants underscoring the ongoing risks across the crossing. Utilities & Protests: Weeks of heat-driven power and water cuts have sparked fresh mass demonstrations in Tunis, with protesters demanding Saied’s departure, reliable basic services, medicine availability and an end to repression. Agriculture & Exports: Tunisia’s olive oil exports jumped 55.3% to a record 368,000 tonnes in the first nine months of the 2025/26 season, bringing $1.6bn, with the EU taking 57.1% of shipments. Banking & Corporate Results: Banque de Tunisie reported stronger Q2 2026 indicators as net banking income rose 11.8%, while SFBT posted H1 2026 net profit of TND 185m (+9.1%). Markets: The Tunindex edged up 0.15% to 19,594.67 points, with BNA shares leading volume. Energy & Industry: Tunisia’s electricity and water stress continues to weigh on the economy, while a separate report highlights how heat can disrupt supply chains, including delayed delivery of Dutch military clothing due to outages in Tunisia.

Tunisia Protests: Hundreds of Tunisians rallied in Tunis demanding President Kais Saied’s departure, citing “one-man rule,” worsening public services and shortages amid extreme heat, with demonstrators also calling for the release of jailed opposition figures. Water & Fuel Pressure: Separate reports highlight recurring power and drinking-water cuts driving anger, while a sudden fuel transport drivers’ strike disrupted distribution and triggered queues at gas stations. Olive Oil Export Boost: Tunisia’s olive oil exports jumped 55.3% in the first nine months of the 2025/26 season to 368,000 tons, bringing in $1.6bn, with the EU taking 57.1% of shipments. Corporate & Banking Results: SFBT posted TND 185m net profit in H1 2026 (+9.1%), while Banque de Tunisie reported stronger Q2 indicators, with net banking income up 11.8% on improved cost dynamics. Markets: The Tunindex edged up 0.15% to 19,594.67 points as BNA shares rose 3.4%. Food Security Watch: Black Sea attacks are tightening global wheat logistics, pushing buyers toward costlier alternatives—an issue that matters for North Africa’s import bill.

Protests & Governance: Hundreds of Tunisians marched in Tunis demanding President Kais Saied’s departure, denouncing “one-man rule” and calling for jailed opposition figures’ release amid worsening cost-of-living pressures, power outages and drinking-water shortages. Fuel & Logistics: A sudden strike by fuel transport drivers disrupted distribution across the capital, triggering long queues and highlighting unresolved disputes with the government. Tourism Momentum: Tunisia welcomed over 5.8 million international tourists by end-July, reinforcing the sector’s recovery and its role in foreign-currency earnings. Food Trade: ONAGRI reported a TND 1,006.6m food trade surplus in the first seven months of 2026, driven mainly by a 43.4% jump in olive oil exports despite higher cereal imports. Foreign Investment & Banking: FIPA said international investment reached TND 1.929bn in H1 2026 (up 11.5% y/y), led by manufacturing and energy; QNB Tunisia posted strong H1 results with deposits up 11.7% and loans up 25.2%. Energy/Water Stress: The heatwave intensified electricity rationing and hit water pumping, feeding public anger and regional unrest. Regional/Global Watch: Black Sea wheat disruptions are tightening supplies and raising prices, while Turkish exports to Africa climbed to $13.3bn in the first seven months, including higher shipments to Tunisia.

Black Sea Wheat Disruption: Attacks on Black Sea ports and grain terminals are delaying shipments from Russia and Ukraine, pushing global wheat buyers to seek costlier alternatives as Asian importers worry about meeting contracted delivery schedules. Tunisia Food Trade: ONAGRI says Tunisia’s food trade surplus widened to TND 1,006.6m in the first seven months of 2026 (up 22.2%), driven mainly by a 43.4% jump in olive oil exports despite higher cereal imports. Foreign Investment Inflows: FIPA reports international investment in Tunisia at TND 1.929bn by end-June 2026, with FDI dominating (TND 1.912bn) and manufacturing the main magnet. Banking Results: QNB Tunisia posted strong H1 2026 figures, with deposits up 11.7% to TND 1.647bn and loans up 25.2% to TND 1.737bn. Banking Sector Watch: A market note highlights banks’ growing reliance on Treasury income as net interest margin weakens and securities portfolio income rises. Opposition Protest Over Utilities Crisis: A new opposition collective, Nafas, plans a Tunis protest after extreme heat worsened power and water cuts, fueling public anger. Tunisia’s Gold Market: Sfax jewellers report local gold demand steady after recent global price swings, with consumers likely to shift focus to back-to-school spending. Tunisia-Turkey Trade: Turkish exports to Africa hit $13.3bn in Jan–Jul 2026 (+12.6%), with Tunisia among destinations seeing growth.