AGP Executive Report

Trade Links: Tunisia-Vietnam trade reached $59.43 million in the first nine months of 2026, up 9.7% year on year. Recent rule changes could open more room for Vietnamese goods, though tariffs and payment hurdles remain. Investment: FDI rose 30.1% in 2025 to TND3.51 billion, creating 14,085 jobs outside the energy sector. The economy minister cautioned that higher inflows alone do not guarantee broad gains. Growth and Trade: The IMF raised its 2026 growth forecast for Tunisia to 2.4%, while the trade deficit neared a record TND21 billion by end-September. Olive oil export revenue topped TND4 billion in the first nine months, and tourism receipts plus remittances approached TND14 billion. Energy: STEG is seeking bids for a 50 MW solar plant and battery storage project in Tataouine, with potential funding administered by the EBRD.

Investment: Foreign direct investment rose 30.1% in 2025 to TND 3.51 billion, creating 14,085 jobs outside the energy sector. The economy minister cautioned that the impact depends on the projects and sectors receiving funds. Energy: STEG has tendered a 50 MW solar project with battery storage in Tataouine and 600 MWh of batteries across 10 sites, with bids due December 10. Economic outlook: The IMF raised its growth forecasts to 2.4% for 2026 and 2% for 2027, but expects inflation to reach 6.3% and the current-account deficit 5.3% of GDP next year. Trade and business: Ennakl Automobiles’ first-half net profit fell 9.2%. Tourism receipts and diaspora remittances reached TND 13.85 billion by October 10; olive oil export revenue topped TND 4 billion in the first nine months, while the trade deficit neared TND 21 billion at September’s end. Farm finance: The Tunisian Solidarity Bank allocated TND 20 million in seasonal loans for small date farmers in four southern governorates.

2027 Finance Bill: President Kaïs Saïed says the draft budget aims to advance social justice and ease the tax burden, while urging investment that delivers tangible benefits. Growth Outlook: The IMF raised its forecasts for Tunisia to 2.4% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, though growth remains modest. Trade and Prices: The trade deficit reached TND 20.997 billion in the first nine months as imports outpaced exports. Olive oil export revenues rose 37.4% to about TND 4 billion, while September inflation climbed to 5.6%, driven largely by food prices. Investment and Industry: Pursuit Aerospace is expanding its Tunisian plant with a target of more than 1,000 jobs, while French pharma group SGH has opened its first factory outside France in Tunisia. Monetary Policy: The Central Bank held its key rate at 7% despite rising inflation.

Growth Outlook: The IMF raised its forecasts for Tunisia, projecting growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, up from 2.1% and 1.6%. Trade and Exports: Olive oil export revenues climbed 37.4% to about TND 4 billion in the first nine months, but the overall trade deficit reached TND 20.997 billion as imports grew faster than exports; the export coverage ratio fell to 70.6%. Prices: Inflation rose to 5.6% in September, driven mainly by food, with agricultural prices up 13% year on year while processed food prices rose just 1.8%. Energy: Tunisia’s energy trade deficit widened 29% to TND 9.658 billion by end-August. A union representative warned that proposed green hydrogen projects could intensify pressure on scarce water and energy supplies. Investment: Tunisia and a South Korean delegation explored new partnerships in automotive components, including investment and industrial cooperation.

Trade and Energy: Tunisia’s trade deficit reached TND 21 billion in the first nine months of 2026, with energy accounting for nearly half. The energy trade gap widened 29% by end-August, while peak electricity demand hit a record 5,089 MW. Industrial Investment: Tunisia and South Korea explored automotive-components investment opportunities, while Spanish group ARSAM plans to expand its local operations. Aerospace firm Pursuit is targeting more than 1,000 additional Tunisian jobs as it expands its plant. Health Cooperation: Tunisia and Indonesia agreed to prepare a cooperation deal covering pharmaceutical manufacturing, vaccines, telemedicine and food safety. Economic Outlook: Tunisia’s current-account deficit reached 2.5% of GDP by end-August; the Central Bank kept its key rate at 7% despite rising inflation.

Trade Pressure: Tunisia’s trade deficit reached nearly TND 21 billion in the first nine months of 2026, as imports rose faster than exports. Energy accounted for about half the gap, with the energy deficit up 29% by August. Energy Strain: Peak electricity demand hit a record 5,089 megawatts in August, forcing STEG to impose rotating cuts during heatwaves; imports covered 10% of power needs in the first eight months. Investment: Tunisia and South Korea discussed partnerships in automotive components, while US aerospace firm Pursuit plans a 40% expansion of its Tunis site, targeting more than 1,000 jobs by late 2027. Industry: French group SGH Medical Pharma opened its first factory outside France in Mégrine, employing about 100 people to produce medical and pharmaceutical components. Markets: The Central Bank kept its key rate at 7% amid inflation pressures, while the dinar recently slipped past TND 3 per dollar.

Food Safety: Tunisia rejected 134 tonnes of food imports for failing standards, as inspections also led to the destruction of 1,120 tonnes deemed unfit and the closure of 125 establishments. Aerospace Investment: Pursuit Aerospace is expanding its Tunis plant by 40%, aiming to employ more than 1,000 people when the new facilities are completed in 2027. Manufacturing: French group SGH Medical Pharma has opened its first factory outside France in Mégrine, with around 100 jobs producing medical and pharmaceutical plastics. Economic Pressures: Tunisia’s current-account deficit reached 2.5% of GDP at end-August, while the dinar weakened past three to the dollar; the Central Bank kept its key rate at 7% despite rising inflation.

Tourism Investment: El Hamma draws nearly 3 million visitors a year for mineral-water treatments, and officials are pushing ahead with a thermal spa city, a treatment centre and revival of Aïn Zarat baths. Industrial Expansion: US aerospace manufacturer Pursuit Aerospace is expanding its Tunis plant by 40%; the site is expected to employ more than 1,000 people when work finishes in 2027. French group SGH Medical Pharma has opened its first factory outside France in Mégrine, with about 100 employees making medical and pharmaceutical plastics. Economic Pressures: Tunisia’s current-account deficit reached 2.5% of GDP at end-August, while the dinar slipped past three to the dollar for the first time since May 2025. The Central Bank held its key rate at 7% despite rising inflation. Trade and Jobs: The Trade Ministry is recruiting 100 economic control officers across the country, with applications due by November 9. Tourism and remittances brought in a combined TND 13.2 billion by end-September.

Aerospace Investment: Pursuit Aerospace is expanding its Tunis plant by 40%, with the project expected to lift employment to more than 1,000 by late 2027. Manufacturing: French group SGH Medical Pharma has opened its first factory outside France in Mégrine, creating about 100 jobs to make medical and pharmaceutical products. Economic Pressures: The Central Bank held its key rate at 7% as September inflation rose to 5.6%. Tunisia’s current-account deficit widened to 2.5% of GDP by August, with energy imports up 28% year on year. Tourism and Industry: Meliá plans five more Tunisian hotels, targeting 3,000 rooms by 2030. Italian group Pieralisi is considering an Africa innovation and training center in Tunisia. Public Finances: The public-sector wage bill rose 4.9% year on year to TND 12.2 billion in the first half.

Aerospace Jobs: Pursuit Aerospace is expanding its Tunis plant by 40%, with the site expected to employ more than 1,000 people when construction finishes in 2027. Manufacturing: French group SGH Medical Pharma has opened its first factory outside France in Mégrine, producing medical and pharmaceutical plastics and employing about 100 people. External Pressures: Tunisia’s current-account deficit widened to 2.5% of GDP by end-August as energy imports jumped 28% year on year to TND 11.3 billion. Monetary Policy: The Central Bank held its key rate at 7% as September inflation rose to 5.6%. The dinar also slipped past 3 to the dollar for the first time since May 2025. Investment Plans: Italy’s Pieralisi is considering a Tunisia-based innovation and training hub for African markets, while Meliá plans five more hotels and aims for 3,000 rooms in Tunisia by 2030. Public Finances: The public-sector wage bill rose 4.9% to TND 12.2 billion in the first half of 2026. Banking: Tunisian Foreign Bank’s Tunis branch returned to profit in 2025, though a foreign-exchange gain outweighed weaker core lending income.

External Accounts: Tunisia’s current-account deficit widened to 2.5% of GDP by end-August, from 1.6% a year earlier. Energy imports rose 28% to TND 11.3 billion, adding pressure as the dinar slipped past TND 3 per US dollar. Monetary Policy: The Central Bank held its key rate at 7% as September inflation climbed to 5.6%, with higher food and energy costs weighing on prices. Investment: Italian group Pieralisi is considering a Tunisia-based Africa innovation and training centre, building on its local operations. Tourism: Spain’s Meliá Hotels plans five more Tunisian properties, aiming for 3,000 rooms by 2030. Public Finances: The public-sector wage bill rose 4.9% to TND 12.2 billion in the first half of the year.

Monetary Policy: Tunisia’s central bank held its key rate at 7% as September inflation rose to 5.6%. The current-account deficit widened to 2.5% of GDP by end-August, from 1.6% a year earlier, as energy imports climbed 28% to TND 11.3 billion. Investment: Italian olive-oil technology group Pieralisi is considering a Tunisia-based Africa innovation and training centre. Spain’s Meliá Hotels plans five more properties, aiming for 3,000 rooms in Tunisia by 2030. Industry: Pharmaceutical manufacturers face a January 2027 deadline to adopt electronic drug-submission files, with initial software and equipment costs estimated at TND 30,000. Infrastructure: The government reviewed six major projects, including Tunis-Carthage Airport expansion and the proposed Enfidha deep-water port, but progress varies and construction timelines remain unclear.

Pharma Modernisation: Tunisia’s drugmakers face a costly shift as electronic filings become mandatory on January 1, 2027. Setting up the required systems is estimated at TND 30,000 per manufacturer, raising concerns about the burden on smaller firms. Public Finances: The state wage bill rose 4.9% year-on-year to TND 12.2 billion in the first half, equal to 48.2% of the 2026 allocation. Currency and Rates: The dinar slipped past TND 3 per US dollar for the first time since May 2025, while the Central Bank kept its key rate at 7%, citing upside risks to inflation. Energy Investment: Tunisia and Algeria will study a planned 1.4-gigawatt gas power plant. Tunisia also joined a five-country pact advancing a proposed €13 billion green hydrogen corridor to Europe, including a pipeline link to Sicily. Corporate Results: SIAME’s first-half profit rose 9.9% to TND 1.9 million despite falling revenue. Chemical maker ALKIMIA’s 2025 net loss widened to TND 54.6 million, though cash flow improved.

Pharmaceuticals: Tunisia’s drugmakers face mandatory e-CTD filings from January 2027. Initial systems may cost about TND 30,000; 25 of 48 authorized manufacturers have invested so far. Industry Investment: Selenis’s acquisition of Greek production assets will lift its specialty copolyester capacity above 200,000 tonnes by 2028, across sites including Tunisia. Monetary Policy: The Central Bank held its key rate at 7% on October 7, warning inflation risks remain tilted upward. The dinar has also slipped past 3 to the dollar for the first time since May 2025. Budget & Energy: A parliamentary committee chair says the 2027 budget should use a $90 Brent assumption, above the government’s $75–$80 range. Tunisia is also part of a proposed €13 billion hydrogen corridor to Europe, though financing and other project details remain to be settled. Climate Finance: Tunisia estimates it needs nearly $55 billion for climate investment from 2026 to 2035 and is seeking to build bankable projects with government, business and financial partners.

Monetary Policy: Tunisia’s central bank kept its key rate at 7% on Oct. 7, warning that inflation risks remain tilted upward. Climate Finance: The country estimates it needs nearly $55 billion in climate investment by 2035 and is seeking ways to turn priority projects into bankable investments. Currency Pressure: The dinar fell past 3 to the dollar for the first time since May 2025, raising the cost of dollar-priced imports and external debt. Public Finances: Midyear budget figures show debt interest spending at 51.8% of its annual allocation, while development spending reached just 21.2%; interest payments were 2.2 times investment spending. Tourism and Remittances: Combined revenues topped TND13.2 billion by the end of September. Business Watch: Ciments de Bizerte narrowed its first-half loss by 18% as a government-approved restructuring plan advances, despite a 20% drop in revenue.

Monetary Policy: Tunisia’s central bank kept its key interest rate at 7% on October 7, citing upside risks to inflation. Climate Finance: The country says it needs nearly $55 billion in investment through 2035 to meet its climate goals, and is seeking to turn plans into finance-ready projects. Currency & Revenues: The dollar moved above 3 dinars for the first time since May 2025. Remittances and tourism revenues topped TND 13.2 billion by the end of September. Budget & Supply: Parliament’s Finance and Budget Committee is reviewing 2026 budget implementation and assumptions for 2027, while shortages of basic goods and water interruptions continue to weigh on households. Business Investment: Orange Tunisia and Focus Tunisie will offer locally hosted cloud services to businesses; a Tunisia–South Korea forum next week will explore automotive and industrial partnerships.