AGP Executive Report

Tunindex & Markets: Tunisia’s main stock index rose 0.82% to a new all-time high of 20,158.70 points, with SIPHAT and BNA among the day’s top movers, while SANIMED and ENNAKL lagged. Tourism & FX: Central Bank data show tourism receipts reaching 3.35bn dinars by end-June 2026, up year-on-year and boosting foreign exchange inflows ahead of the peak summer season. Livestock Recovery: Tunisia launched a 2026-2030 plan to rebuild its drought-hit livestock herd, with funding via the state budget, a competitiveness fund and partners, including support for small farmers and subsidies for breeding. Energy/Justice: Tunisia’s Court of Appeal upheld convictions tied to misappropriation at ETAP over the Nawara gas field, while reducing sentences for two former officials. Trade & Food: Libya remains Tunisia’s top fruit buyer, taking 73% of exports (13,877 tons) since the start of the year to July 8. Regional Diplomacy: Tunisia and Russia marked 70 years of diplomatic ties as foreign ministers exchanged congratulations, citing cooperation in agriculture, economy and science.

Tunindex & Markets: Tunisia’s stock benchmark Tunindex climbed 0.82% to a new all-time high of 20,158.70 points, with SIPHAT and BNA among the top gainers and SANIMED among the biggest losers. Tourism & FX: Tourism receipts reached 3.35 billion dinars by end-June 2026, up year-on-year and boosting foreign exchange inflows ahead of the peak summer season. Central Bank Watch: A new Central Bank of Tunisia annual report flags a fragile 2026 outlook, pointing to shared assumptions with government projections and risks around fuel subsidy cuts and commodity-price bets. Public Finance & Growth: The World Bank says Tunisia’s 2025 growth improved to 2.5% but remains too weak for job creation, with high debt and limited external financing still weighing on prospects. Energy/Justice: Tunisia’s Court of Appeal upheld prison terms for former ETAP officials over misappropriation linked to the Nawara gas field, while reducing sentences for two defendants. Agriculture Recovery: Tunisia launched a 2026-2030 plan to rebuild its livestock herd after drought, using budget funds, a competitiveness fund and partners, with support for small farmers and animal health. Regional Trade & Diplomacy: Tunisia-Nigeria ties were reinforced via phone talks, with focus on ICT, healthcare, medical tourism, manufacturing and petroleum, ahead of a joint commission meeting in Tunis. Civil Society Pressure: Pro-Morocco activists in Tunisia fear a crackdown could use “foreign agent” accusations to silence them as civic space tightens.

Tunindex Rally: Tunisia’s main stock index rose 0.82% on Friday to a new all-time high of 20,158.70 points, with SIPHAT and BNA among the top gainers and SANIMED among the biggest losers. Tourism FX Boost: Tourism receipts reached 3.35 billion dinars by end-June 2026, up year-on-year and supporting foreign exchange reserves ahead of the peak summer season. Central Bank Watch: A World Bank review says Tunisia’s recovery is modest and job creation remains weak, warning that high debt and limited external financing keep the outlook uncertain. Livestock Recovery Plan: Tunisia launched a 2026-2030 programme to rebuild its livestock herd after drought, targeting small farmers’ access to loans and subsidies for breeding animals, with support from the national budget and partners. Energy/Justice Update: Tunisia’s Court of Appeal upheld prison terms for former ETAP officials over misappropriation linked to the Nawara gas field, reducing sentences for two while keeping financial penalties. Transport Modernisation: Transtu signed a €75m deal for 18 electric trains on the Tunis–La Goulette–La Marsa line, co-financed by EBRD and EIB, with a five-year maintenance package. Regional Trade: Libya accounted for 73% of Tunisia’s fruit exports so far this year, underscoring how key markets shape Tunisia’s agri-food earnings.

Tunindex Rally: Tunisia’s benchmark Tunindex climbed 0.82% to a new all-time high of 20,158.70 points, with active trading led by AMEN BANK and BNA. Tourism Boost: Tourism receipts reached 3.35bn dinars by end-June 2026, up year-on-year and supporting foreign currency inflows ahead of the peak season. Central Bank Watch: The BCT’s 2025 annual report shows growth at 2.5% and inflation at 5.3%, but flags a risky 2026 outlook tied to budget assumptions and subsidy cuts. Debt Dynamics: Tunisia’s total debt rose 3.9% in 2025, with external debt shrinking and domestic debt taking a larger share. Rail Phosphate Pressure: SNCFT moved about 601,000 tons of phosphate in H1 2026, down 23% versus last year, despite approved financing for rail rehabilitation. Listed Firms Performance: 2025 profits of listed companies rose 7% to 3.179bn dinars, led by Tunindex20 heavyweights. Transport Modernisation: Transtu signed with CRRC for 18 electric trains (about €75m), co-financed by EBRD and EIB, to upgrade the Tunis–La Goulette–La Marsa line. Policy Agenda: Parliament will resume voting on the 2026-2030 development plan draft after the economy minister answers MPs’ questions. Regional Business Links: Tunisia and Nigeria reaffirmed cooperation plans in ICT, healthcare, medical tourism, manufacturing and petroleum, with a joint commission session planned in Tunis.

Tunisia’s 2026-2030 Plan Vote: The Assembly of the Representatives of the People will resume a plenary session to vote on the draft law approving Tunisia’s 2026-2030 development plan, with the economy minister expected to answer MPs’ questions. Public Finance Watch: The World Bank warns Tunisia’s recovery remains fragile, citing high debt, limited external financing and weak job creation, especially for young people. Debt Update: Tunisia’s central bank says total debt growth slowed to 3.9% in 2025, with external debt continuing to fall. Markets: Tunis Stock Exchange data shows listed companies’ profits rose 7.2% in 2025 to 3.179 billion dinars, led by Tunindex20 heavyweights. Transport & Industry: Transtu signed with CRRC for 18 electric trains (about €75m, co-financed by EBRD and EIB) to modernize the Tunis–La Goulette–La Marsa line. Phosphate Logistics: SNCFT reports a 23% drop in phosphate rail transport in H1 2026, despite a planned railway rehabilitation loan. Energy/Trade Context: Tunisia’s auto sector is shifting toward high-value manufacturing and an electric mobility ecosystem. Customs Crackdown: Tunisian customs seized major quantities of drugs, gold and foreign currency in the first half of 2026.

Tunisia Debt & Financing: The Central Bank of Tunisia said total debt growth slowed to 3.9% in 2025, helped by a sharper fall in external debt and more moderate domestic borrowing, while the AMF approved a $312m extended loan to back the government’s reform and balance-of-payments needs. Tunisia Economy Watch: The World Bank warned Tunisia’s recovery remains fragile, with modest growth and job creation still lagging amid high debt and limited external financing. Capital Markets: Tunis Stock Exchange data show listed companies’ 2025 net profits rose 7.2% to TND 3.179bn, led by Tunindex20 heavyweights. Trade & Industry: SNCFT reported a 23% drop in phosphate rail haulage in H1 2026 to about 601,000 tons, despite a planned railway rehabilitation loan. Public Policy: The government cabinet reviewed draft laws and decrees on energy, food security, housing, health and air transport, stressing a push for better public service performance. Security & Customs: Customs seized 78.4kg of cocaine, 17kg of gold and large contraband quantities in H1 2026. Business Expansion: Pusterla 1880 opened a £4m Tunisia packaging facility in Sousse to serve global beauty, fragrance and premium drinks brands. Regional Context: EU proposes sanctions targeting migrant smugglers and traffickers with asset freezes and travel bans.

Tunisia Economic Planning: The Assembly of People’s Representatives will review draft law No. 42/2026 approving the 2026-2030 development plan, a key framework meant to steer growth, investment, jobs, regional balance and public services. Central Bank Support: Tunisia and the Arab Monetary Fund agreed a first extended loan of 76.7 million Arab Accounting Dinars (about $312m) to back the government’s reform programme and cover balance-of-payments needs, with disbursement in three tranches. Road Safety Cost: A national study day warned road accidents cost Tunisia around 1.73 billion dinars a year (about 1.15% of GDP), with nearly 10,000 victims recorded annually. Plastic Policy Push: Tunisia is moving to ban single-use plastic bags nationwide, with a transition period and penalties, alongside support for alternatives. Tourism Deal in Jendouba: A Tunisian businessman plans helicopter tourist flights over Tabarka-Aïn Draham, priced at 250 dinars for about an hour, pending final procedures. Regional Trade Signal: Türkiye’s exports to Africa rose 12% to $11bn in H1 2026, with Tunisia among key destinations.

Plastic Ban Push: Tunisia is moving to ban single-use plastic bags nationwide, with a transition period of up to one year and a phase-out of plastic packaging for food sold by weight, alongside reusable/biodegradable standards, an industrial conversion support programme, and tougher penalties. Road Safety Investment: Tunisia’s road safety observatory and health ministry, with WHO support, say road crashes cost the country 1.73bn dinars a year (1.15% of GDP) and warn that targeted, evidence-based interventions could prevent 17,300+ deaths and cut long-term economic losses by tens of billions. Development Plan Debate: The Assembly of People’s Representatives will examine draft law No. 42/2026 approving the 2026-2030 development plan, setting priorities for growth, investment, jobs, regional balance and public services. FDI & Finance: Tunisia secured a first extended loan agreement with the Arab Monetary Fund for 76.7m Arab Accounting Dinars (about $312m) to support balance-of-payments needs, with disbursement in three tranches. Tunisia Tourism Boost: Jendouba’s Tabarka-Aïn Draham is set to launch tourist helicopter flights—about one hour for 250 dinars per person—after legal and administrative steps. Banking & Markets: Tunisia’s Central Bank and local institutions continue to signal tighter financial management as inflation eases and currency supply measures remain in focus.

Tunisia Road Safety Push: Tunisia’s road crashes cost the economy 1.73 billion dinars a year (1.15% of GDP), with nearly 10,000 victims recorded annually, while a new study says targeted, evidence-based measures could prevent over 17,300 deaths and 570 cases of permanent disability over 30 years. Tunisia Finance Support: The Central Bank of Tunisia and the Arab Monetary Fund agreed a first extended loan of 76.7 million Arab Accounting Dinars (about $312m) in three tranches to back the government’s economic and financial reform programme and cover balance-of-payments needs. Tunisia Currency & Banking Signals: Tunisia issued 117 million new banknotes and 30 million coins in 2025, while Banque Tuniso-Koweïtienne received a Fitch upgrade to ‘CCC’ and inflation eased to 5.3% in June. Regional Investment Climate: Jordan improved its investment climate ranking and attracted $2.022bn in FDI in 2025 (+25%), as the Dhaman report highlights reform priorities across Arab markets. Crypto Regulation Shift: New Zealand withdrew a blanket ban on crypto ATMs, moving instead to targeted rules that could cap cash transactions for virtual assets. Trade Diplomacy Watch: Türkiye’s exports to Africa rose 12% to $11bn in the first half, with Tunisia among key destinations.

Tunisia’s cash supply update: The Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) says it issued 117 million new banknotes in 2025 (worth 3,509 million dinars), plus 30 million coins, as it ramps up currency production for the 2026-2027 cycle. Industrial policy & investment: The World Bank’s IFC is backing Tunisia’s automotive ambitions with $59.4m financing for a German supplier, aiming to upgrade factories, support SMEs in the supply chain, and strengthen skills and digital upskilling. Banking & finance: Fitch upgraded Banque Tuniso-Koweitienne to ‘CCC’, while BIAT again won “Best FX Bank in Tunisia” from Global Finance for a sixth straight year. Energy & renewables: MIGA is supporting Tunisia’s 100MW Sidi Bouzid II solar project with a guarantee, reinforcing the push for clean power. Local governance & services: SNIT Nord opened an external recruitment competition for five agents and executives, with applications online until July 27. Trade & compliance: Tunisia’s denim sector is preparing for EU Digital Product Passports (DPP), with obligations expected to start for EU-market textiles around 2028-2029. Regional investment climate: Dhaman’s 2025 Investment Climate Guarantee Index shows 13 Arab countries improved rankings, while Kuwait placed 5th in the Arab world and 51st globally.

Central Banking & Cash Supply: Tunisia’s Central Bank says it issued 117 million new banknotes in 2025 (+15.3% y/y) and 30 million coins (+57.2% in volume), while processing 578.7 million banknotes for recirculation and destroying worn notes. Inflation Watch: June inflation eased to 5.3% y/y (from 5.5% in May), helped by slower food price growth, though summer-linked services stayed firm. Credit Rating Update: Fitch upgraded Banque Tuniso-Koweitienne to CCC (from CCC-) after restored compliance with minimum capital rules, while still flagging weak buffers and high impaired loans. Energy & Climate Finance: MIGA approved up to €13.05m for 20 years to back Tunisia’s 100MW Sidi Bouzid II solar project, supporting a long-term PPA with STEG. Industrial Push (Automotive): The World Bank’s IFC is set to consider $59.4m financing for Marquardt’s Tunisia expansion, aiming to deepen local supplier links and skills. Business & Jobs: SNIT Nord opened a recruitment competition for five agents/executives across northern branches, with applications online until July 27. Trade & Diplomacy: Tunisia and Nigeria agreed to deepen cooperation across trade, investment, education, defence, technology and people-to-people links. Regional Business Context: Italy–Tunisia aerospace meetings highlight Tunisia’s bid to position as a regional hub for components and industrial innovation.

Automotive & Industry: The World Bank’s IFC is set to approve $59.4m financing for Marquardt’s Tunisia expansion, aimed at factory upgrades and working capital while deepening local supplier links and skills. Energy & Climate Finance: MIGA approved up to €13.05m (20 years) to back Tunisia’s 100MW Sidi Bouzid II solar project, supporting grid-linked power sales to STEG. Banking & FX: Fitch upgraded Banque Tuniso-Koweitienne to ‘CCC’ as it returns to regulatory capital compliance, while BIAT won “Best FX Bank in Tunisia” for a sixth straight year. Macroeconomy: Tunisia’s inflation eased to 5.3% in June, helped by slower food price growth, though services and summer-related costs stayed firm. Public Works: The Presidency says the Sfax metro project remains a priority, with studies and utility relocations done, but implementation depends on land and regulatory steps. Trade & Diplomacy: Nigeria and Tunisia pledged to deepen cooperation across trade, investment, education, defence and technology, including reviving a joint commission. Regional Finance: EBRD says Nigeria will be a central pillar of its West Africa expansion, with new presence plans across key markets. Sports & Business Mood: World Cup coverage continues to spotlight African football’s momentum, with Tunisia-linked diaspora and match-time impacts on local businesses.

Human Rights Clampdown: Tunisian courts handed harsh prison terms and huge fines to eight rights defenders, including Sihem Bensedrine (25 years) and Saadia Mosbah of Mnemty (8 years), raising fresh alarms over shrinking civic space. Solar & Guarantees: MIGA approved up to €13.05m for 20 years to back Tunisia’s 100MW Sidi Bouzid II solar project, supporting a 25-year power purchase deal with STEG. Inflation Watch: Tunisia’s inflation eased to 5.3% in June (from 5.5% in May), with food price growth slowing to 7.1%. Banking & Risk: Fitch upgraded Banque Tuniso-Koweitienne to ‘CCC’ from ‘CCC-’, citing restored compliance with minimum capital rules, though capital buffers and asset quality remain weak. Monetary Policy Debate: A Central Bank working paper argues Tunisia’s key interest rate no longer steers the economy, mainly “accompanying” a budget the state can’t fully control. Development Plan Pressure: Parliamentarians say financing is the main uncertainty for the 2026–2030 plan, with 61% of investments expected from the state budget and past implementation rates under 40%. Education Reform: The plan also targets higher-quality private higher education rules and closer links between university curricula and labor market needs. Corporate Finance: TERIAK (Groupe Kilani) received MSI 20000 certification for financial excellence.

Tunisia–China Finance: China’s People’s Bank authorized Standard Bank of South Africa and ICBC to act as the RMB Clearing Bank for Africa, giving 19 African countries direct access to China’s onshore RMB system—aimed at easing FX pressure for Tunisian banks and cutting double-conversion costs in trade settlements. Tunisia Water Sector: The Ministry of Water says the National Conveyance Project cost was targeted to be reduced by about $2.5bn during negotiations, while warning the sector’s debt (already over TND 4bn) could rise sharply without reforms, tariff changes and loss-reduction measures. Energy & Infrastructure (Tunisia): Hitachi Energy secured a €770m contract for the Tunisia–Italy power link, a major cross-border grid project with implications for investment and electricity reliability. Tourism & Consumer Safety: The U.S. State Department flagged “unsafe swimming locations” in Tunisia tied to water pollution concerns, adding pressure on coastal operators during peak season. Business & Travel (Tunisia): Jet2 will launch direct Birmingham–Tunisia flights for summer 2027 (two weekly services), boosting inbound capacity ahead of the next tourism cycle. Sports & Economy (Tunisia-linked): Tunisia’s former coach Hervé Renard has left his role after the World Cup, while hard-currency shortages are also cited as a risk for Tunisia’s summer festivals.

Tunisia Festival Crunch: Organisers warn Tunisia’s summer festival season is at risk after foreign-currency transfers to pay international performers were reportedly rejected once the FX quota for cultural events was exhausted, raising fears of last-minute cancellations and contract disputes. Water Supply Disruption: SONEDE says it will impose daily water cuts from midnight to 5:00 a.m. in Sousse, Monastir and Mahdia to rebalance reservoirs during peak summer demand, with the schedule linked to accelerated tests for the Sousse seawater desalination plant. Energy & Infrastructure: Tunisia-Italy power ties get a boost as Hitachi Energy secures a €770m contract for a landmark Tunisia–Italy electricity project. Finance & Markets: The Tunis Stock Exchange resumes activity at its main site, with Tunindex closing in positive territory. Governance & Compliance: Tunisia’s customs authority launches a survey on customs clearance times, while Tunisia also faces scrutiny over rising suspicious financial reports between 2020 and 2025. Hard-Currency Pressure: Separate coverage flags foreign currency reserves falling below the 100-day import threshold, underlining the wider strain behind the festival FX problem.

Water & Infrastructure: Tunisia’s water utility SONEDE announced daily water cuts in Sousse, Monastir and Mahdia from midnight to 5:00 a.m. starting July 5, citing summer peak demand, rising temperatures and reservoir imbalance, while tests for the Sousse seawater desalination plant continue. Public Finance & Risk: Tunisia’s summer festival season faces disruption as organizers report foreign-currency transfers for international performers are being rejected after the FX quota for cultural events was exhausted, raising the risk of cancellations and contract disputes. Energy & Investment: Hitachi Energy secured a €770-million contract for a landmark Tunisia–Italy power project, underlining continued cross-border infrastructure investment. Trade & Payments: Afreximbank chief pushed for PAPSS adoption to cut Africa’s dollar dependence, spotlighting payment-system reform as a lever for intra-African trade. Governance & Compliance: Tunisia’s Customs launched a survey on customs clearance times, aiming to improve trade facilitation and operational efficiency. Regional Integration: AfCFTA secretary-general Wamkele Mene condemned attacks on foreign nationals in South Africa as contrary to the single-market vision.